Tesla Auto Manufacturing Plants in California & Shanghai
Monitoring Economic Impacts of COVID-19
Status of Economic Activity
Ursa Space is monitoring automobile manufacturing facilities for observable, physical activity that can signal changes in production.
Automobile manufacturers often store finished cars in lots adjacent to the factories they were produced. Tracking the amount of cars in these lots can indicate the production level for a factory.
Using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), we are able to determine the amount of man-made objects in an area, e.g. number of cars.
Ursa Space is monitoring 60 auto plants in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The companies we are monitoring include: BMW, Changan, Fiat, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover, Kia, Nissan, PSA, Renault, SAIC-GM, Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswagen.
We can help answer questions like:
- How active are these facilities?
- What are production trends?
- What does this signal for the economy?
In this story map, we focus on Tesla, which in July 2020 surpassed Toyota to become the world’s largest automaker by market value. By monitoring Tesla’s factories, Ursa Space can provide a pulse on production trends ahead of quarterly releases.
Tesla Factory in Shanghai
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1
Fremont, CA
Most Tesla vehicles are manufactured in Fremont, California (shown here). The first Model S was built at the Bay Area facility in 2012. Tesla’s other manufacturing opened in Shanghai earlier this year.
Tesla doesn’t break out production by site, though data from the China Passenger Car Association shows almost 30,000 Shanghai-made Model 3 vehicles sold in the second quarter (equal to ~ one-third of total sales).
A third plant is being built in Berlin, with the first deliveries on track for 2021. Tesla is considering a second US vehicle factory, possibly Tulsa, OK or Austin, TX.
2
Production Sales
Tesla’s production and sales increased sharply in 2018, and continued to push higher in 2019 and 2020, albeit with some setbacks along the way. The latest challenge has come from COVID-19, which disrupted operations and hurt global auto sales.
Tesla’s main factory in Fremont, California was shut for almost two months starting March 23, due to orders from local health officials enforcing coronavirus in the Bay Area.
In Shanghai, the Chinese government ordered the Tesla plant to close briefly in late January. A second temporary closure reportedly occurred in early May as a result of parts shortages.
Automakers rely on a global supply chain for components, which works well in normal times. During a global pandemic, it means an outbreak in one corner of the world can paralyze a business far away.
When Tesla reported the company’s second quarter results on July 2, the question wasn’t so much whether production and sales had fallen, but by how much?
3
Stock Price
In the second quarter of 2020 , Tesla produced over 82,272 vehicles and delivered approximately 90,650 vehicles.
Q2 production was 20% less than the first quarter, when Tesla produced 102,672 vehicles. Tesla’s deliveries (a proxy for sales) increased by 2% compared with the first quarter, defying major headwinds.
The results beat expectations, pushing Tesla’s share price further into the stratosphere.
On July 10, Tesla’s stock price closed at $1,544, an all-time high. Tesla shares traded for $430 at the start of the year, an unbelievable 259% rally in little more than six months.
The rally lifted Tesla above Toyota to become the world’s largest automaker by market capitalization, despite an overwhelming difference in terms of capacity.
Toyota produced more than 10 million vehicles in 2019, versus Tesla’s approximately 360,000 vehicles. Tesla’s 2020 goal is 500,000 vehicles.
4
SAR Activity Index
Most Tesla vehicles are manufactured at the Fremont, California facility. Production at the Shanghai facility is expected to ramp up.
As shown here, activity at the Fremont facility has fluctuated since the data began in late 2018.
This graph plots the SAR Activity Index, which measures the level of fullness at the parking lots contained in the footprint of the Fremont facility.
Results above 1 indicate the lot is more full than on average in this period, while results below 1 indicate the low is less full than on average in this period.
The index rises sharply in Q4 2019 and stays at those higher levels through Q1 2020, before a downturn in Q2 2020. By June, however, the index had rebounded.
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Production vs SAR Activity Index
These trends are significant because they mirrored Tesla’s production trends in 2019 and the first half of 2020.
The index averaged three straight quarterly gains through March 2020. Tesla production topped 100,000 vehicles for the first time in Q4 2019 and stayed above that mark in Q1 2020.
An analysis shows Ursa Space’s auto manufacturing index for the Fremont facility has 70% correlation with Tesla’s quarterly production figures.
Based on our SAR activity index, Q2 production was forecasted at 83,000 vehicles, nearly exactly what Tesla reported. Clients can confidently have a pulse on Tesla's' production ahead of earnings releases.
The actual number was 82,272 vehicles. Our index showed a higher by June, signaling Tesla’s ability to reopen after the coronavirus-related closure. If that lasts, then Q3 production will likely show a quarter-on-quarter increase.
6
Ursa Space's Process
Our team analyzed SAR imagery to determine the presence or absence of cars at manufacturing facilities around the world.
As an example, the SAR images shown here capture the FAW-Volkswagen Plant in Tianjin, China . The area outlined in red is the parking lot next to the manufacturing plant.
The presence of more “bright” or “white” areas means there is greater SAR energy, which means more cars are present in the parking lot.
Ursa Space’s radar imagery experts quantify the SAR energy in the images to develop an index to determine activity levels.
Using these raw SAR energy outputs, we created SAR Activity Indices to visualize these trends.
For these visualizations, the raw energy for each observation is divided by the average raw energy total over the period from September 2018 to present.
Results above 1 indicate the lot is more full than on average in this period, while results below 1 indicate the low is less full than on average in this period.
Ursa Space Systems is continually monitoring vital locations around the world using satellite imagery to provide a deeper understanding of the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19.
Ursa Space Systems is a U.S.-based satellite intelligence company that provides business and government decision-makers access to on-demand analytic solutions. Through its radar satellite network and data fusion expertise, Ursa Space detects real-time changes in the physical world to expand transparency. The company’s subscription and custom services enable clients to access satellite imagery and analytic results with no geographic, political, or weather-related limitations.
Contact support@ursaspace.com for more information.
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